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Abstract
This dissertation examines how external conditions shape fiscal and financial outcomes in emerging market economies (EMEs). The first paper, Monetary Shocks and Fiscal Consequences, studies how exogenous depreciations against the U.S. dollar affect corporate profits and tax revenues. Using panel regressions and a calibrated DSGE model, it finds that domestic-currency depreciation raises corporate income and total tax revenue in the short run through valuation and demand effects. The second paper, Determinants of Sovereign Bond Issuance in Emerging Markets, employs a new auction-level dataset covering 20 EMEs (2000–2023) to analyze issuance volume, maturity, and currency. Local-currency issuance mainly reflects refinancing needs, while foreign-currency issuance is more strategic and moves with global conditions, interest-rate differentials, and investor sentiment. The third paper, The Impact of China on Trade Invoicing, explores how China’s market size and commodity exchanges affect exporters’ currency choice. It shows that organized Chinese demand—not trade share alone—can shift invoicing from the U.S. dollar toward the euro for non-energy commodities. Together, the three studies reveal how exchange-rate dynamics, global financing cycles, and China’s market integration influence fiscal revenues, sovereign debt management, and currency use in trade.