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Abstract

The first paper, Geopolitical risk and economic expectations: the role of trade linkages, examines how geopolitical risks affect economic forecasts and how trade structures influence the transmission of foreign geopolitical shocks through countries’ main trading partners. It finds that geopolitical risks have limited effects on the level of expectations but significantly increase forecast uncertainty. Countries with more substitutable exports experience larger uncertainty spillovers. The second paper, Do tax revenues track economic growth: comparing panel data estimators, analyzes the responsiveness of tax revenues to economic activity. It highlights significant differences across estimators and finds lower short-term responses than previously reported. It also finds that discretionary tax changes are largely acyclical, reinforcing the limited role of tax policy in smoothing economic fluctuations. The third paper, Other days, other ways? Fiscal and monetary policy reaction functions over the past seven decades, studies the evolution of fiscal and monetary policy responses to economic cycles in advanced economies since 1950. It finds that both policies have become more countercyclical over time. In contrast to monetary policy, fiscal policy shows greater asymmetry and remains expansionary for longer during downturns.

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