This paper seeks to trace the etiology of trade wars and explore the steps responsible for (re)escalation and de-escalation between allies. It asks, if a trade war is resolved, what are the chances of recurrence among the same dyad? In understanding this phenomenon, the paper will examine three case studies (US-Japan, US-EU, and US-Canada) to theorize the dynamics and mechanisms in play before, during, and after a trade war—testing the theory’s robustness via events data and statistical models.