TY  - GEN
AB  - Human appropriation of land use for agriculture has long been the primary determinant of the level of global biodiversity. However, over the past fifty years technological change in the agricultural sector has enabled the accommodation of larger populations without greater land use requirements. The current situation is singular, in that the population will continue to expand over the coming century, but in combination with very substantial fertility decline. This will result in substantial increases in the dependent population, at the same time that there is a reduction in the supply of labour. What does this imply for land use in the coming century? We demonstrate in an endogenous growth model how this combination of peak population and declining fertility could result in technological regression in agriculture, due to the myriad pressures on the labor supply, and the reversal of the longstanding trend toward reduced land use in agriculture. In this sense, the long term future for biodiversity is not so bright.
AU  - Naso, Pedro
AU  - Swanson, Timothy M
CY  - Cambridge
DA  - 2024
DA  - 2024
ID  - 319791
KW  - Environment and the Anthropocene
KW  - Technology
L1  - https://repository.graduateinstitute.ch/record/319791/files/TS.pdf
L2  - https://repository.graduateinstitute.ch/record/319791/files/TS.pdf
L4  - https://repository.graduateinstitute.ch/record/319791/files/TS.pdf
LK  - https://repository.graduateinstitute.ch/record/319791/files/TS.pdf
N2  - Human appropriation of land use for agriculture has long been the primary determinant of the level of global biodiversity. However, over the past fifty years technological change in the agricultural sector has enabled the accommodation of larger populations without greater land use requirements. The current situation is singular, in that the population will continue to expand over the coming century, but in combination with very substantial fertility decline. This will result in substantial increases in the dependent population, at the same time that there is a reduction in the supply of labour. What does this imply for land use in the coming century? We demonstrate in an endogenous growth model how this combination of peak population and declining fertility could result in technological regression in agriculture, due to the myriad pressures on the labor supply, and the reversal of the longstanding trend toward reduced land use in agriculture. In this sense, the long term future for biodiversity is not so bright.
PB  - University of Cambridge, Cambridge Centre for Energy, Environment and Natural Resources  Governance
PP  - Cambridge
PY  - 2024
PY  - 2024
T1  - Land use in the long runwhat is the future of biodiversity
TI  - Land use in the long runwhat is the future of biodiversity
UR  - https://repository.graduateinstitute.ch/record/319791/files/TS.pdf
Y1  - 2024
ER  -