TY  - GEN
AB  - The Covid-19 pandemic has introduced huge numbers of employers and employees to remote work. How many of these newly remote jobs will go overseas? We offer a rough quantification based on two observations: 1) offshore work is trade in services, and 2) the number of telemigrants is the volume of this trade divided by the average wage. Combining these with gravity-model estimates, we can roughly predict the number of new telemigrants that would arise from lower barriers to trade in services. Telemigration seems unlikely to be transformative when it comes to the development paths of most emerging economies. The baseline service trade flows are modest, and the standard gravity model restricts modest changes to have modest impacts. There are no tipping points in structural gravity models. Finally, we propose a simple model of telemigration in which small changes can have large consequences. The key is to assume that latent comparative advantage takes a different shape than typically assumed in quantitative trade models. Given this, small changes in trade costs can generate large and asymmetric increases in the exports of service tasks from low-wage nations.
AU  - Baldwin, Richard E
AU  - Dingel,  Jonathan I.
CN  - 006 HEIA 129975
DA  - 2023
DO  - 10.4324/9781003275534-6
DO  - doi
ID  - 302626
KW  - Technology
KW  - Trade and Work
L1  - https://repository.graduateinstitute.ch/record/302626/files/10.4324_9781003275534-6_chapterpdf.pdf
L2  - https://repository.graduateinstitute.ch/record/302626/files/10.4324_9781003275534-6_chapterpdf.pdf
L4  - https://repository.graduateinstitute.ch/record/302626/files/10.4324_9781003275534-6_chapterpdf.pdf
LK  - https://repository.graduateinstitute.ch/record/302626/files/10.4324_9781003275534-6_chapterpdf.pdf
N2  - The Covid-19 pandemic has introduced huge numbers of employers and employees to remote work. How many of these newly remote jobs will go overseas? We offer a rough quantification based on two observations: 1) offshore work is trade in services, and 2) the number of telemigrants is the volume of this trade divided by the average wage. Combining these with gravity-model estimates, we can roughly predict the number of new telemigrants that would arise from lower barriers to trade in services. Telemigration seems unlikely to be transformative when it comes to the development paths of most emerging economies. The baseline service trade flows are modest, and the standard gravity model restricts modest changes to have modest impacts. There are no tipping points in structural gravity models. Finally, we propose a simple model of telemigration in which small changes can have large consequences. The key is to assume that latent comparative advantage takes a different shape than typically assumed in quantitative trade models. Given this, small changes in trade costs can generate large and asymmetric increases in the exports of service tasks from low-wage nations.
PY  - 2023
T1  - Telemigration and developmenton the offshorability of teleworkable jobs
TI  - Telemigration and developmenton the offshorability of teleworkable jobs
UR  - https://repository.graduateinstitute.ch/record/302626/files/10.4324_9781003275534-6_chapterpdf.pdf
Y1  - 2023
ER  -