000293931 001__ 293931 000293931 005__ 20250213113256.0 000293931 0247_ $$2doi$$a10.71609/iheid-m1rm-rq54 000293931 037__ $$aBOOK 000293931 245__ $$aGlobal population growth, technology and Malthusian constraints: a quantitative growth theoretic perspective 000293931 260__ $$aGeneva$$bThe Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies$$c2016 000293931 269__ $$a2016 000293931 300__ $$a51 p. 000293931 336__ $$aPapers and Reports 000293931 490__ $$aGraduate Institute of International and Development Studies Working Paper ; no. 04/2016 000293931 520__ $$aWe structurally estimate a two-sector Schumpeterian growth model with endogenous population and finite land reserves to study the long-run evolution of global population, technological progress and the demand for food. The estimated model closely replicates trajectories for world population, GDP, sectoral productivity growth and crop land area from 1960 to 2010. Projections from 2010 onwards show a slowdown of technological progress, and, because it is a key determinant of fertility costs, significant population growth. By 2100 global population reaches 12.4 billion and agricultural production doubles, but the land constraint does not bind because of capital investment and technological progress. 000293931 700__ $$aLanz, Bruno 000293931 700__ $$aDietz, Simon 000293931 700__ $$aSwanson, Timothy M 000293931 8564_ $$9160aa251-051f-479f-b65d-dd4940d118c7$$s2055869$$uhttps://repository.graduateinstitute.ch/record/293931/files/HEIDWP04-2016-1.pdf 000293931 8564_ $$9f3db124a-4674-4acf-99b3-bf1f8e908e8e$$xpdfa$$s3376328$$uhttps://repository.graduateinstitute.ch/record/293931/files/HEIDWP04-2016-1.pdf?subformat=pdfa 000293931 901__ $$uInternational Economics Department$$0319285 000293931 909CO $$ooai:repository.graduateinstitute.ch:293931$$pIHEID:Infonet$$pGLOBAL_SET$$pIHEID:Infonet_CFD$$pIHEID:Infonet_IE_2$$pIHEID:Infonet_CTEI$$pIHEID:Infonet_CCDP$$pIHEID:Explore$$pIHEID:Infonet_IE 000293931 937__ $$aWP-2016-044 000293931 980__ $$aINFONET 000293931 980__ $$aWP