TY  - GEN
AB  - We structurally estimate a two-sector Schumpeterian growth model with endogenous population and finite land reserves to study the long-run evolution of global population, technological progress and the demand for food. The estimated model closely replicates trajectories for world population, GDP, sectoral productivity growth and crop land area from 1960 to 2010. Projections from 2010 onwards show a slowdown of technological progress, and, because it is a key determinant of fertility costs, significant population growth. By 2100 global population reaches 12.4 billion and agricultural production doubles, but the land constraint does not bind because of capital investment and technological progress.
AU  - Lanz, Bruno
AU  - Dietz, Simon
AU  - Swanson, Timothy M
CY  - Geneva
DA  - 2016
DA  - 2016
DO  - 10.71609/iheid-m1rm-rq54
DO  - doi
ID  - 293931
L1  - https://repository.graduateinstitute.ch/record/293931/files/HEIDWP04-2016-1.pdf
L1  - https://repository.graduateinstitute.ch/record/293931/files/HEIDWP04-2016-1.pdf?subformat=pdfa
L2  - https://repository.graduateinstitute.ch/record/293931/files/HEIDWP04-2016-1.pdf
L2  - https://repository.graduateinstitute.ch/record/293931/files/HEIDWP04-2016-1.pdf?subformat=pdfa
L4  - https://repository.graduateinstitute.ch/record/293931/files/HEIDWP04-2016-1.pdf
L4  - https://repository.graduateinstitute.ch/record/293931/files/HEIDWP04-2016-1.pdf?subformat=pdfa
LK  - https://repository.graduateinstitute.ch/record/293931/files/HEIDWP04-2016-1.pdf
LK  - https://repository.graduateinstitute.ch/record/293931/files/HEIDWP04-2016-1.pdf?subformat=pdfa
N2  - We structurally estimate a two-sector Schumpeterian growth model with endogenous population and finite land reserves to study the long-run evolution of global population, technological progress and the demand for food. The estimated model closely replicates trajectories for world population, GDP, sectoral productivity growth and crop land area from 1960 to 2010. Projections from 2010 onwards show a slowdown of technological progress, and, because it is a key determinant of fertility costs, significant population growth. By 2100 global population reaches 12.4 billion and agricultural production doubles, but the land constraint does not bind because of capital investment and technological progress.
PB  - The Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies
PP  - Geneva
PY  - 2016
PY  - 2016
T1  - Global population growth, technology and Malthusian constraints: a quantitative growth theoretic perspective
TI  - Global population growth, technology and Malthusian constraints: a quantitative growth theoretic perspective
UR  - https://repository.graduateinstitute.ch/record/293931/files/HEIDWP04-2016-1.pdf
UR  - https://repository.graduateinstitute.ch/record/293931/files/HEIDWP04-2016-1.pdf?subformat=pdfa
Y1  - 2016
ER  -