000291597 001__ 291597
000291597 005__ 20250213113242.0
000291597 0247_ $$2doi$$a10.71609/iheid-6qdj-3s53
000291597 037__ $$aBOOK
000291597 245__ $$aDemand learning and firm dynamics: evidence from exporters
000291597 260__ $$aGeneva$$bThe Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies$$c2015
000291597 269__ $$a2015
000291597 300__ $$a35 p., xii
000291597 336__ $$aPapers and Reports
000291597 490__ $$aGraduate Institute of International and Development Studies Working Paper ; no. 03/2015
000291597 520__ $$aThis paper provides evidence that learning about demand is an important driver of firms' dynamics. We present a simple model with Bayesian learning in which  firms are uncertain about their idiosyncratic demand parameter in each of the markets they serve, and update their beliefs as noisy information arrives in each period. The model predicts that firms update more their beliefs following a new demand shock, the younger they are. To test this learning mechanism, we make use of a specific feature of exporter-level data which contains both the values and the quantities sold by a given firm for the same product in different destination markets. This allows us to derive a methodology that identifies separately the demand shocks faced by the firms and their beliefs about future demand. We find strong support for our main prediction: The updating process appears especially strong in the first years after entry. However, the bulk of accumulated knowledge is lost during short periods of exit. Second, we consider implications of this prediction for firm growth rates and survival. Consistent with the learning model, we find that: (i) the absolute value of the mean growth rate for firms' beliefs decreases with age, as does the variance within cohorts; (ii) exit probability decreases with firms' beliefs and the demand shock the firm faces. Further, demand shocks trigger more exit in younger cohorts.
000291597 700__ $$aBerman, Nicolas
000291597 700__ $$aRebeyrol, Vincent
000291597 700__ $$aVicard, Vincent
000291597 8564_ $$97e0f9ac8-2fad-4d4b-a48b-9983e335b6be$$s680537$$uhttps://repository.graduateinstitute.ch/record/291597/files/IHEIDWP03-2015.pdf
000291597 8564_ $$95d423a6b-2b6e-425e-8816-35231b53e5e6$$xpdfa$$s1842946$$uhttps://repository.graduateinstitute.ch/record/291597/files/IHEIDWP03-2015.pdf?subformat=pdfa
000291597 901__ $$uInternational Economics Department$$0319285
000291597 909CO $$ooai:repository.graduateinstitute.ch:291597$$pIHEID:Infonet$$pGLOBAL_SET$$pIHEID:Infonet_CFD$$pIHEID:Infonet_IE_2$$pIHEID:Infonet_CTEI$$pIHEID:Infonet_CCDP$$pIHEID:Explore$$pIHEID:Infonet_IE
000291597 937__ $$aWP-2015-036
000291597 980__ $$aINFONET
000291597 980__ $$aWP