000283799 001__ 283799
000283799 005__ 20250213113302.0
000283799 037__ $$aBOOK
000283799 245__ $$aThe (lack of) impact of impact: why impact evaluations seldom lead to evidence-based policymaking
000283799 260__ $$aClermont-Ferrand$$bFondation pour les études et recherches sur le développement international$$c2013
000283799 269__ $$a2013
000283799 300__ $$a24 p.
000283799 336__ $$aPapers and Reports
000283799 490__ $$aWorking paper ; 73
000283799 520__ $$aA recurring puzzle to many academics and some policymakers is why impact evaluations, which have become something of a cottage industry in the development field, have so little impact on actual policymaking. In this paper, I study the impact of impact evaluations. I show, in a simple Bayesian framework embedded within a standard contest success function-based model of competition amongst anti-evaluation policymakers, Bayesian policymakers, and frequentist evaluators,that the likelihood of a program being cancelled is a decreasing function both of the impact estimated by the evaluation and of the prior on whose basis the program was approved to begin with. Moreover, the probability of cancellation is a decreasing function of the effectiveness of the influence exerted by frequentist evaluators. Since the latter’s effectiveness in terms of lobbying in favor of their findings in the real world is likely to be close to zero, the likelihood of cancelling a program that was approved in the first place, despite its suffering a highly negative evaluation, is extremely low. The model thus provides one possible explanation for why impact evaluations have so little impact in the realm of decisionmaking, and why they have contributed so little to evidence-based policymaking.
000283799 700__ $$aArcand, Jean-Louis L
000283799 8564_ $$94af61e5f-e409-4aeb-8f6b-1f34f23476f3$$s376771$$uhttps://repository.graduateinstitute.ch/record/283799/files/Arcand%20-%20Impact%20of%20Impact-2013.pdf
000283799 8564_ $$9b74dad93-9eb5-4017-81e0-fb23dfbdf2ff$$xpdfa$$s1848032$$uhttps://repository.graduateinstitute.ch/record/283799/files/Arcand%20-%20Impact%20of%20Impact-2013.pdf?subformat=pdfa
000283799 901__ $$uCentre for Finance and Development
000283799 901__ $$uInternational Economics Department$$0319285
000283799 909CO $$ooai:repository.graduateinstitute.ch:283799$$pIHEID:Infonet$$pGLOBAL_SET$$pIHEID:Infonet_CFD$$pIHEID:Infonet_IE_2$$pIHEID:Infonet_CTEI$$pIHEID:Infonet_CCDP$$pIHEID:Explore$$pIHEID:Infonet_IE
000283799 937__ $$aWP-2014-021
000283799 980__ $$aWP
000283799 980__ $$aINFONET