The macroeconomic pass-through effects of monetary policy through sign restrictions approach: in the case of Albania

Shijaku, Gerti

Geneva : The Graduate Institute, 2015 . - 38 p.

Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies Working Paper ; no. 11/2015

Abstract: This paper examines the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in Albania during 2002 M01 - 2014 M12. The main question addresses the macroeconomic pass-through effects of a monetary policy shock, with regards to a conventional interest rate and possible different balance sheet policy changes. The analysis is based on a structural vector autoregressive model for Albanian economy that includes means of the Cholesky identification scheme and the sign restrictions approach. The former produces mixed results, that are either statistically insignificant or show a puzzle behavior. The latter is found to reduce bias, albeit with some supportive significant clear cut robustness evidences of the short run macroeconomic pass-through effects of a stimulus monetary policy that materialises within twelve periods. A stimulus monetary policy is found to support economic activity and increase price level. The effect is positive with regards to bank lending and monetary money stock variables. Exchange rate depreciates, accomplished by some higher stress on financial market condition. Both of these variables show a contemporaneously stronger response compared to the other variables. Analyses show that the greatest impact, through means of policy rate, is found to be on price level, bank lending and real money stock. In contrast, the greatest impact, through the liquidity effect, is on output, exchange rate and financial market conditions.

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Research Clusters > Development Policies and Practices
Research Clusters > Environment and Natural Resources
Research Clusters > Non-state Actors and Civil Society
Research Clusters > Culture, Identity and Religion
Research Clusters > Trade and Economic Integration
Research Clusters > Finance and Development
Research Clusters > Governance
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 Record created 2015-11-16, last modified 2016-04-05

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